OUR ONCE AND FUTURE ISLANDS

Imagine! Our emerald isles, green and serene. Tobago – unspoilt, undiscovered, untouched - remains the beacon of what our two islands can become again. So what lies beyond Petrotrin, beyond the stink of oil and gas? What is on the blue horizon for Tobago and Trinidad? Dr Anjani Ganase, marine scientist, explores the way to our future with information taken from the IPCC assessment report 5.

It is clear, according to the last report from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), we need to make changes as quickly as possible. As our lifestyles continue to advance, our energy consumption is expected to more than double from 2010 in 2050 unless we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emission. Climate change has already resulted in scorched landscapes.  Island nations are drowning, adding climate refugees to the caravans. Coral reefs are decimated worldwide. We cannot imagine what life would be like in 2050 if we continue business as usual. Fortunately, scientists have risen to the challenge of accelerated research to develop alternative energy sources, and ways to actively remove CO2 from our emissions. Behaviour change must catch up with the innovations in renewable energy and carbon dioxide capturing and storage technology is what we need to get us over the finish line in time. 

The renewable energy tech industry focussed on hydroelectricity, wind and solar energy. Today, the designs for renewable energy are almost do-it-yourself. Energy production, safety and long-term efficiency has been tried, tested and implemented: Sweden (solar, wind), Costa Rica (hydroelectricity and geothermal), Nicaragua (wind, solar, geothermal), Germany (solar), China (wind), Scotland (wind), Kenya (solar). Deployments at a large-scale in other countries only require regulation and incentives, against the rising cost of fossil fuels (IPCC 2014). Investment in renewable energy is increasing and is expected to increase into the future, as the investment in fossil fuels and extraction will continue decline. Countries that need more time to fully commit can invest in natural gas - a cleaner substitute for coal in the short-term - as a bridging solution (up to 2050)  to a completely renewable energy system.

The Blue and the Green: Tobago can transition directly to a new economy without the degradations of industrialisation. Pirate’s Bay, Tobago. Photo credit: Pat Ganase

The other activity that needs to be incentivised or mandated is carbon dioxide capturing and storage, deep underground such as in exhausted oil wells. Although implemented in certain locations, there have been some concerns about long-term environmental impacts for the storage of the CO2, specifically around safety and transport. However, the literature indicates that this technology is rapidly being improved and approved for large-scale application. Of course, the other form of carbon capturing is through intense afforestation.

So how should the role of the oil and gas industry change for the future? Many companies have already rebranded themselves “energy” companies, but how many have actively transitioned from oil and gas? None yet, although there’s a lot of investment into research and development of green energy. For countries like Trinidad and Tobago, shifting energy sources quickly and efficiently is a daunting task. One option would be a closer relationship between the local power generation and energy companies for a strategy to make the shift to renewables through consumers. The first reason for the partnership should be mandated by policy makers: the fossil fuel industry is responsible for over 80 % of the carbon emissions globally. They should be made responsible for damage control. The second reason is energy companies already have the financial resources, human expertise and high standards for health and safety to implement and manage renewable energy technology. The energy companies also have global reach. 

Unfortunately, the energy company would not be able to bottle wind and solar, so parameters of trade must change; they sell technology. An intermediate stage might be to use natural gas with CO2 capturing mechanisms. Trinidad and Tobago is uniquely positioned for these transitions, which must become urgent as in immediate and five-year plans.

Conserving green T&T. Photo credit: Anjani Ganase

WE ARE ALL ENERGY USERS

The main users with high emissions apart from energy supply (electricity and heat), which accounts for 25 % of CO2 emissions, are industry (21 %), transport (14 %), buildings (6 %), and agriculture and land use (24 %) (2010 estimate; IPCC 2014). 

Industry, specifically manufacturing accounts for a large portion of the global carbon emission. Iron, steel and cement all have high carbon footprints. Mitigations for industry rely on continuous improvement using technology to

increase productivity and efficiency and lower carbon dioxide emissions. We can limit energy use through waste reduction, repurposing and recycling. Investment in long lasting quality electronics and materials is also recommended but it is a challenge in the throw away age, where tools (think iphones and PDAs) become obsolete after a few years.

The carbon footprint of buildings is related to the materials used, and the energy for climate control. Homes have shifted to more air-conditioning use. But new buildings can be more efficient: to reduce heat loss (in colder countries); to have rooftop gardens. Modern building codes now include low energy use ratings. 

Agriculture, farming and land use are major culprits of carbon emissions mostly as a result of deforestation, which reduces carbon dioxide sequestration. Fortunately, the deforestation rate has declined, as afforestation programmes, managing land use and soil restoration have offset the CO2 emissions. 

Most emissions from the transport sector come from cars, freights and short haul flights. Revamping urban transport is complex. The perception of public transport, enforcement of regulations and investment to maintain the public transport system need to be considered. When a car is needed, energy efficient, hybrid and even electric cars are the way forward. 

OUR FUTURE ISLANDS

Let us keep Tobago a green island with solar generation – instead of gas pipelines from Trinidad – installed first at the eco-industrial centre at Cove!

Let us imagine a Trinidad where the east offshore sites are converted to wind farms; where solar panels cover most rooftops of our cities and throughout locations along the central plains. Let us imagine a Trinidad with a north-south and east-west electrical railway meeting at the central station by the Mt. Hope fly over (commuting would take less than an hour with interchanges). Let us replace the clogged streets of Port of Spain or Chaguanas with trams, buses and cycle lanes to carry us to areas within the cities and the suburbs. Car use would only be needed for the weekend beach excursion or to explore marine and forest reserves protected by law for the crucial purpose of carbon sequestration. Let’s make it happen and make it happen quickly!

Cocoa comeback: the new economy can see revitalisation of industries like cocoa. Photo credit: Pat Ganase

References:

IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Work¬ing Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.