Adapt, build resilience, transform

Dr Anjani Ganase presents important take-aways from the latest (2019) IPCC report, with recommendations for governments and communities

For island nations, the ocean has multiple roles: it defines our boundaries and uniqueness, yet it is the means for exchange of goods and services. The ocean is our major source of food and recreation; and the resource that supports livelihoods, communities and economies. The marine environment around Trinidad and Tobago includes coral reefs that fringe our coastlines but extend to deep ocean habitats beyond the edge of the continental shelf. On a broader scale, the ocean is our regulator of climate, absorbing heat from the atmosphere (more than 90 % of it) and carbon dioxide. Trinidad and Tobago’s close connection to the ocean, like that of many other small island developing states (SIDS), also makes us more vulnerable to the changes in the ocean system. The latest Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere) has been released. Here is what we as islanders need to know.

Current observations of climate change impacts

Observed climate related hazards to oceans around island nations include the presence of marine heat waves, severe cyclones, storm surge events, sea-level rise and salt water inundation, and intense periods of drought and rainfall. Severe events can cause damage to coastal and low-lying communities as well as the marine ecosystems they depend on. Marine ecosystems such as coral reefs around the world have experienced widespread degradation because of marine heat waves that result in coral bleaching; but the impacts of climate change on other marine ecosystems appears to be specific to regions or even islands. Local human activities – improper use of marine resources or active protection – seem to exacerbate or abate the severity of climate impacts respectively.

Coral reefs and their inhabitants are vulnerable to both climate change and local fishing practices. Photo by Jonathan Gomez

Leatherback turtle nesting sites in Trinidad and Tobago are vulnerable to rising temperatures, sea-level rise and coastal development. Photo by Anjani Ganase

We learned that the impacts of sea-level rise are highly dependent on local environments and geographical areas. While low-lying nations, especially Pacific island atolls, nations are the extreme cases of sea inundation; the impacts of sea-level rise in other locations may be less obvious or limited to severe weather events. Nonetheless, the rate of sea-level rise has been confirmed to be accelerating in the recent decades and this rate is expected to continue to increase. Also observed are the combined impacts of climate change: higher temperatures and salt-water inundation have been shown to result in the die off mangrove stands that then transition to saltwater marshes as hydrology shifts. The combined impacts of sea-level rise and more severe hurricanes resulted in the devastation of coastal communities and marine ecosystems in both the Caribbean and Pacific regions. The socio-economic damage as a result of damages to ecosystems is also more obvious for SIDs that depend on the ocean as their source of food and income. For example, the post-disaster needs by Dominica following Hurricane Maria was 226 % of the country’s GDP (2016). Ecotourism and agriculture are a large source of Dominica’s GDP, which means that economic recovery is closely aligned to its ecological recovery from climate related events.

Predictions into the future

Our marine ecosystems will continue to be impacted by climate change, namely through increasing frequency of marine heat waves, more intense storms and increase in coastal flooding (extreme sea-level events). This will negatively impact marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, coastal wetlands and even the upper pelagic regions of the ocean. As SIDS depend heavily on these ecosystems for fisheries, tourism and other habitat services, negative social and economic impacts are likely to continue, especially without adaptation strategies. Coral reefs around the world have already suffered widespread die offs with less than a 1 C rise in average sea surface temperatures. It is expected that a rise in temperatures of 1.5 C will result in the loss of 70 – 90% of coral reefs worldwide. Most at risk are unprotected coral reefs, exposed to human activities and not managed.

The impacts of more severe storms will continue to add financial strain to the GDP of SIDS. At the same time, the value of marine ecosystem goods and services will also decline because of the degradation of the coral reefs, which impact our food security, fisheries and tourism industry, not to mention coastal infrastructure that also suffer during severe storm events on top of chronic degradation. Coastal properties will become devalued because of insurance risk to flood and storm surge damage. Without the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change, the impacts will significantly worsen into the future. Mismanaged coastal construction and the lack of enforcement in illegal land clearing, for example, may result in additional pressure on coastal ecosystems  - mangroves, seagrass bed, and beach vegetation – where these habitats lack the space needed to shift with sea-level rise and storm surge. However, strict regulation of coastal land use should allow for natural landward shifts of our important ecosystems.

 

Mangroves in Bon Accord Lagoon, Caroni and Nariva are vulnerable to sea-level rise, warmer temperatures and coastal development. Photo by Renee Gift

Adapt, build resilience, choose transformative governance

Adapt: Adaptation strategies need to be implemented to conserve social and ecological systems. There is an array of strategies to combat climate change, including hard and soft engineering strategies, but also community education and ecosystem based approaches are currently being used. However, there are challenges; guidelines to determine best practice strategies suitable for local conditions and marine ecosystems are limited. Also limited are the funds needed to assess vulnerability and implement mitigation strategies for SIDS. For example, while the implementation of sea walls and breakwaters is commonly used as short-term strategy to stem coastal erosion in an area, these can do significant damage to downstream communities and marine habitats. Therefore, proper assessments need to be done to determine the best strategies for managing risk, but also ensure the protection and restoration of communities and ecosystems alike. Soft strategies, such as establishing marine protected areas, implementation of early warning systems, education on proper land use and enforcement of protected area policies may be as effective with enough planning, and complementary to hard engineering and technology.

Build resilience: While mechanisms for risk management and adaptation should be implemented, we as SIDs are likely to experience climate change related disasters, be it a severe storm event, coral bleaching or coastal flooding. These events need to be planned for to ensure quick recovery of the ecology and the economy, especially in a future of more frequent disturbance events. Modelling and building climate resilient pathways ensures that we can bounce back. On the ground research to model the potential threats and the best mitigation strategies is needed; as well as establishing a climate change disaster relief fund, building a seed or biodiversity stock for restorative purposes, and- employing resilience based management of marine ecosystems and coastal communities.

Transformative governance: The adaptation and resilience programmes need to be built on an already functioning framework of environmental regulation and enforcement. Governments need to do their job and establish and enforce marine policies and regulation for the protection of our biodiversity: stop illegal poaching of ecologically sensitive species, recognise overfished species and exploited marine areas, establish marine spatial planning.  More pertinent to the future is a government that is collaborative and innovative in their plans for assisting in climate adaptations. Strategies need to consider the time for ecosystems and communities to adapt and recover. Innovative partner projects can include the use of tourism to fund marine management and enforcement in marine protected areas. Governments must partner with independent entities and work with local communities in education and capacity building so that policies and plans are accepted and adopted. Governments also need to think more integrative, considering socio-ecological solutions knowing that island state livelihoods are greatly dependent on our biodiversity. Finally, governments need to continue to aggressively move away from fossil fuels and use alternative forms of energy. Not only will these open up opportunities for capacity building and job opportunities in other fields but also slow the rate of change in the climate and buy time for more effective adaptation.

SOURCE: IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem,

J. Petzold, B. Rama, N. Weyer (eds.)]. In press