Blue Sky Dreaming 2019

Pat Ganase draws on the recommendations of the current IPCC report on climate change, and imagines a more hopeful future for Tobago and Trinidad.

2019: will it be a year for more of the same; or a year marked by the radical change that is required at environmental, societal and economic levels. How do we move forward? These are the circumstances that now determine our immediate future: climate change (the world), economic growth (the nation) and personal fulfilment. 

Let us consider the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The October 2018 release is an impassioned plea (from thousands of scientists) to persuade world leaders and the most impactful nations that we need to keep global warming within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). A slip to 2.0C would have disastrous consequences for millions around the world: greater sea level rise; loss of habitats; migration of species; limited food and water in certain regions; spread of vector-borne diseases. Further, we have just a decade (to 2030) to make sweeping changes at national and personal scales. We have to be nimble and quick.

Tobago sky over Sandy Point: this can be the sustainable model Caribbean island, with a little imagination. 

The Report also sets out specific adaptation strategies to reduce emissions as well as to remove (sequester) carbon dioxide. These are particularly applicable to Trinidad and Tobago as an oil and gas- based economy. Since it is not likely that T&T will be exiting the petrochemical industries in a hurry, the challenge is to reduce emissions (through more efficient processes with up-to-date machinery and technology) and to find innovative ways to use/ remove carbon dioxide (beyond re-afforestation). At the same time, citizens and the government must find other suitable and sustainable enterprises and scale them up quickly so that current indicators of our “fourth-richest economy (by GDP per capita) in the Americas” might remain buoyant.

Perhaps the place to start is the personal. For the hundred or so years of our petroleum industry, our economy has become dependent on resources that employed an estimated five percent of the nation; did we care what the other 95 percent did? We produced world-famous musicians, dancers, artists, writers, sportsmen, cocoa planters; we have given the world pan, calypso, carnival, Minshall, Sparrow, and Naipaul. How is this creative energy to be harnessed to an economic indicator; this must be the challenge for leaders whose currency is cash or construction. Isn’t it time we considered new quotients: gross national happiness like Bhutan; or the blue economies of small island states in the Pacific. Might Trinidad and Tobago build an index of celebration on the multiple arts and cultures resident here.

We have the good fortune to be two islands: one oil-rich; the other a resplendent natural paradise with an extensive exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Atlantic Ocean. Trinidad could continue to be the industrial giant. Let Tobago be the land and ocean paradise with its own brand – not just of tourism – of industry that meshes care for the natural environment with scientific research; programmes that would treat the island, its coasts and ocean resources as one ecosystem. Consider the Castara model of tourism: where Caribbean village life is the product and every villager has a stake.

The keys in 2019 are all available to leaders with vision. Many of the strategies are included in the same IPCC report. Others can be extrapolated. Let us look at these extracts from the IPCC SR1.5 Summary for Policymakers.

Increasing warming amplifies the exposure of small islands, low-lying coastal areas and deltas to the risks associated with sea level rise for many human and ecological systems, including increased saltwater intrusion, flooding and damage to infrastructure ... It is anticipated that sea level rise will continue beyond 2100 even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C in the 21st century. This means that coastal areas, river deltas and floodplains will be regularly flooded. We have the bitter experience of 2018 floods in Trinidad. Tobago may be more fortunate but the coastal areas still need to be protected. Building in the Caroni floodplains probably requires innovative architecture, resilient lifestyles: houses built on stilts (models from our indentured Indian ancestors?) as well as changes to the land use of the Northern Range and the Caroni delta.

On land, impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, including species loss and extinction, are projected to be lower at 1.5°C of global warming compared to 2°C. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C is projected to lower the impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems and to retain more of their services to humans. The National Protected Areas Systems Plan 2018 is a good place to start, as a means of surveying what (plants and animals) exists in specific habitats and working (providing jobs) to conserve biodiversity. Extensive areas of Tobago are nominated for protection. Can we consider protected status (different levels) for the whole nature island Tobago?

Global warming of 1.5°C is projected to shift the ranges of many marine species to higher latitudes as well as increase the amount of damage to many ecosystems. It is also expected to drive the loss of coastal resources and reduce the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture (especially at low latitudes). The risks of climate-induced impacts are projected to be higher at 2°C than those at global warming of 1.5°C. Coral reefs, for example, are projected to decline by a further 70–90% at 1.5°C with larger losses (>99%) at 2ºC. The risk of irreversible loss of many marine and coastal ecosystems increases with global warming, especially at 2°C or more. Coral reefs exist all around Tobago; except for the Buccoo Reef Marine Protected Area (MPA), they are unprotected. Loss of the coral reefs means loss of habitats for many sea creatures as well as reduced protection for the shores.

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak. Our highly aggressive exploration and extraction industries (quarrying must be included here for loss of forest cover) must consider CDR as a strategy to reduce the nation’s carbon footprint. Our engineers at UWI and UTT should be challenged to innovate technology to capture and use carbon dioxide; as they should also be tasked to find ways to reduce and re-use disposable or single use materials; convert trash to energy. 

A mix of adaptation and mitigation options to limit global warming to 1.5°C, implemented in a participatory and integrated manner, can enable rapid, systemic transitions in urban and rural areas. These are most effective when aligned with economic and sustainable development, and when local and regional governments and decision makers are supported by national governments.

Instead of duplicating the system of ministries (two tourism companies!) utilized by the government, should Tobago consider other specialist departments that might lead to a Blue economy (sustainable utilization of ocean resources); the Green Economy (sustainable use of island habitats for research and scientific tourism) and a Satisfaction quotient for life in villages and communities. Surely an Energy department should be looking into solar and wind. And even if natural gas continues to be the source of electricity, Tobago is small enough to allow experimental ventures into alternate renewable sources.

Tobago is different from Trinidad. There are opportunities for creating systems that do not depend on central government. As the IPCC Report also advises: 

Strengthening the capacities for climate action of national and sub-national authorities, civil society, the private sector, indigenous peoples and local communities can support the implementation of ambitious actions implied by limiting global warming to 1.5°. Perhaps, we need agencies of Climate Change in local and central government?

Let's try a little blue sky thinking... why not?

Reference:

IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty: see https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/